And from now on Israel's response; I'm joined by Robert Amin, he is a former US State Department official. He's now the council on foreign relations. Eh, Robert, thank you very much for coming in. Clearly, today Israel focused on the funeral. But even today is the Cabinet gathering to talk about what the military response should be. What do you think Israel's gonna do in response to this?
從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始報(bào)道以色列的應(yīng)對(duì)，羅伯特?安民也加入報(bào)道，他曾是美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)院官員，現(xiàn)在就職于外交關(guān)系理事會(huì)。羅伯特，感謝今天做客。明確地說(shuō)，以色列今天關(guān)注的是葬禮。但內(nèi)閣會(huì)議今天也將討論采取什么樣的軍事應(yīng)對(duì)措施，你怎么看待的呢？你認(rèn)為以色列準(zhǔn)備采取什么樣的應(yīng)對(duì)呢？

Well, Israel is divided among itself about what to do. There seem to be three basic options that they are considering, you know. One is going into the West Bank, trying to uproot Hamas even further than they have already. The second is to going into Gaza, and trying to uproot Hamas there. And the third, obviously, is searching for the perpetrators of the kidnapping. They'll definitely go for the third option. The question is what of the other two, will they choose …
以色列內(nèi)部就怎么做產(chǎn)生了分歧，他們目前似乎考慮了三個(gè)基本的選擇。一個(gè)是進(jìn)入西岸，努力比以往更深入地鏟除哈馬斯；第二個(gè)是進(jìn)入加沙，努力鏟除那里的哈馬斯；第三個(gè)顯然是尋找實(shí)施綁架的犯罪者。他們當(dāng)然要選擇第三個(gè)辦法，問(wèn)題是另外兩個(gè)呢？

And if they do go into Gaza, what are you talking about? Are we talking about air strikes against the militants or militant positions in Gaza, or would you think it could actually be a significant ground operation for example?
如果他們確實(shí)進(jìn)入加沙，你會(huì)怎么看待？我們?cè)谡務(wù)搶?duì)加沙的武裝分子或武裝據(jù)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行空襲，你認(rèn)為這確實(shí)會(huì)成為意義重大的地面行動(dòng)嗎？

That's to debate; I mean, well, the real question is what is, what is the objective, what are they going to try to do. Uh, because if they push too hard, and let's say, bring about Hamas' demise, there is even more radical forces in Gaza, who would lead to greater chaos, so is that they wanna do that. They'd had a certain understand with the Hamas, so they are gonna wanna punish Hamas and punish them quite hard; uh, which I think it means it probably weren't going on the ground, although there are people arguing for it. So I think they will seek significant air strikes against the Hamas infrastructure within Gaza for sure.
這個(gè)問(wèn)題有待爭(zhēng)論，我認(rèn)為真正的問(wèn)題是打擊目標(biāo)是什么，他們準(zhǔn)備怎么辦。因?yàn)槿绻麄兇驌袅Χ忍螅热缯f(shuō)殲滅哈馬斯，但是加沙有更多極端力量，那樣會(huì)導(dǎo)致更大的亂局。他們和哈馬斯比較了解，所以他們會(huì)懲罰哈馬斯，重重的懲罰，我認(rèn)為這意味不會(huì)發(fā)生地面行動(dòng)，盡管有些人要求這樣做。所以我認(rèn)為他們當(dāng)然會(huì)對(duì)哈馬斯的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施進(jìn)行重大的空襲。

Ok, what of the indications that for Mahmoud Abbas this might mean that he has to split with Hamas if he doesn't want to feel the ferocity of the Israeli fire power against him too by extension?
那么，這就穆罕默德?哈馬斯來(lái)說(shuō)意味著什么呢？如果他不想經(jīng)受以色列猛烈的炮火打擊，是否會(huì)和哈馬斯決裂呢？

Well, I don't think that's where he's heading. I mean right now, the Palestinian security forces have been cooperating with the Israelis on the West Bank trying to find the perpetrators, trying to keep the security of the West Bank. But this has produced a backlash among the Palestinian people. They are not happy. That's not so much as they are so happy about the kidnapping, but they don't like the fact that the Palestinians are cooperating with the Israelis while Palestinians were getting killed by Israelis searching for the perpetrators of this crime. Uh, so, I think at this point, Abbas, Mahmoud Abbas has very difficult choices. To break with the Hamas right now, I think completely, would be unpopular because unity is popular amongst all Palestinians regardless of their political strike. Even though they may side with one side or the other, what they want more than anything is for the Palestinian factions to come together for the West Bank and Gaza to be reunified for Palestine to be one political entity, and not to have this infighting.
我認(rèn)為他不會(huì)這么做，我是說(shuō)，巴勒斯坦安全部隊(duì)一直在西岸和以色列人一道努力尋找犯罪者，努力確保西岸的安全。但這導(dǎo)致巴勒斯坦人民反對(duì)，他們很不高興。并不是說(shuō)他們對(duì)綁架感到高興，而是他們不喜歡這樣的事實(shí)，即巴勒斯坦和以色列人合作，而巴勒斯坦人卻被尋找犯罪者的以色列人殺害。所以我認(rèn)為在這一點(diǎn)上，穆罕默德?哈馬斯面臨艱難的選擇。我認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在和哈馬斯決裂將不得人心，因?yàn)椴还芷湔螒B(tài)度如何，全體巴勒斯坦人都向往團(tuán)結(jié)。盡管他們可能會(huì)支持這一方或另一方，但他們更希望看到的是巴勒斯坦各派別走到一起來(lái)，重新統(tǒng)一西岸和加沙，將巴勒斯坦成為一個(gè)政治體，不再內(nèi)戰(zhàn)。

OK, Robert. So how does it play out, I mean it's obviously the short-term retaliation and retribution for what happened to these teenagers, but there's bound to be longer-term fallouts from this, isn't it?
好吧，羅伯特，結(jié)果會(huì)怎樣呢？我是說(shuō)顯然這是因?yàn)檫@些少年的遭遇導(dǎo)致的短期報(bào)復(fù)和復(fù)仇事件，但肯定會(huì)導(dǎo)致長(zhǎng)期的不好影響吧？

Absolutely. I think the first casualty of this in a longer term is going to be the national unity government that Mahmoud Abbas is overseeing. That government came together in order to form and hold elections for Palestinian institutions. I think it grew now much further from the elections than that, there were beforehand. And if we don't have elections that means there is no real legitimacy for the leadership, it means that the ongoing political stagnation that's taking place in Palestinian institutions will continue. There is no prospect of a renewed peace process. I think the only way out potentially for Mahmoud Abbas in this is for him not to amuse the Westerners, that he would will return to international fora in which he'll challenge Israel for greater legitimacy and recognition for a Palestinian statehood.
絕對(duì)的，我想長(zhǎng)期的第一個(gè)后果是穆罕默德?哈馬斯目前管理的全國(guó)統(tǒng)一政府，政府團(tuán)結(jié)到一起是為了組建和選出巴勒斯坦政府機(jī)構(gòu)。我想自從選舉后政府就越發(fā)壯大，這都是預(yù)先準(zhǔn)備好的。如果不舉行選舉，那么政府的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)就沒(méi)有合法性，這意味著目前存在于巴勒斯坦政府機(jī)構(gòu)的政治僵局還會(huì)繼續(xù)下去，目前開(kāi)始新的和平進(jìn)程遙遙無(wú)期。我想穆罕默德?哈馬斯目前唯一的出路不是取悅于西方人，而是回到國(guó)際論壇上去要求以色列，為巴勒斯坦國(guó)家地位獲取更大的合法性和認(rèn)可。

OK, wish we could there, have a more optimistic, one day I'll give you in there a more optimistic forum in this process 'cause there has not been very many as in recently. Robert Amin, thank you very much.
好吧，希望能有更樂(lè)觀的結(jié)果，希望將來(lái)出現(xiàn)更令人樂(lè)觀的論壇來(lái)推進(jìn)這一進(jìn)程，謝謝你羅伯特?安民。
Thank you.

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