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World Bank: Ebola Countries Face $1.6B in Lost Economic Growth

The World Bank estimates Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone will lose more than $1.5 billion this year in economic growth due to Ebola. However, the economic effect on the West Africa region overall is now expected to be much lower than previous forecasts.

World Bank Senior Economist Dave Evans, co-author of the latest report on Ebola’s economic consequences, said the three worst affected countries have seen their economies contract. Prior to the outbreak, good economic growth had been expected.

“Essentially, the economic slowdown has been profound. This is a huge change for these economies and a real challenge,” he said.

When determining the economic impact of Ebola, the World Bank studies how people react to the disease.

“With the economic impact of Ebola it really comes through these reactions based on fear – or what we often call aversion behavior – people taking decisions to avoid any exposure to the disease," he said. "One of the challenges with that is that even as the disease starts to get under control and we have fewer cases, it doesn’t necessarily mean that investors immediately start making new plans to open new mines or set up new factories. The effects can be quite enduring.”

He said that phone surveys show that despite a decline in the number of new Ebola cases, job losses remain high and food insecurity persists.

Evans said there are previous examples of the effects of fear on behavior.

“I think it’s most reminiscent of what we saw with SARS and in the early days of AIDS where there was a lot of uncertainty about exactly how people could be exposed," he said. "And as a result, people take sometimes extreme reactions to avoid any interaction with these economies.”

In October, the World Bank estimated the West Africa region could suffer up to $25 billion in losses in 2015. But that estimate is now sharply lower.

Evans said, “What we’ve done is we’ve spoken to our economists in every country around sub-Saharan Africa. What we observe now is that the actual impact we’re seeing for all of Africa – not just West Africa – is more on the order of $500 million – very, very small -- even if we look at a bad case scenario. So, a scenario where the epidemic does spread more in the region we’re looking at about $6.2 billion for all of Africa. So that’s much, much smaller than the $25 billion we were talking about for just West Africa alone.”

The senior economist said the revised forecast is due to – what the bank calls -- “intensive global and national responses to the epidemic over the past several months.”

“The disease,” he said, “has been controlled significantly within the countries. So, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea have taken lots of action to improve safe burials, improve treatments, change behavior -- where people are careful to avoid exposure. And at the same time, neighboring countries have taken strong action to protect themselves. And we see this in Nigeria, Senegal and Mali.”

Nigeria, Senegal and Mali did have a small number of Ebola cases, but all three have been declared Ebola-free.

Evans cautioned, however, that until the number of Ebola cases reaches zero, there is always a chance that the epidemic could grow much worse again.

詞匯解析

impact

難度：4星核心詞匯，屬常用3000詞

英漢解釋

n.影響；沖擊力；撞擊

vt.擠入；壓緊；撞擊；對(duì) ... 發(fā)生影響

vi.沖擊；撞擊；產(chǎn)生影響

參考例句

用作名詞 (n.)

But what these people fail to see is that international tourism may bring about a disastrous impact on our environment and local history.

但是這些人忽視了國(guó)際旅游可能會(huì)給當(dāng)?shù)丨h(huán)境和歷史造成的災(zāi)難性的影響。

用作及物動(dòng)詞 (vt.)

There is a special tool to impact the road when it is under construction so the base is solid.

有種特殊的工具可以在道路修筑過(guò)程中將路面壓緊，因此，路基是結(jié)實(shí)的。

用作不及物動(dòng)詞 (vi.)

The company's performance was impacted by the high value of the pound.

公司的業(yè)績(jī)受到了英鎊高值的沖擊。

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react

難度：3星常用詞匯，屬常用6000詞

英漢解釋

v.反應(yīng)；反攻

參考例句

用作動(dòng)詞 (v.)

The British would never react militarily to the invasion of the islands.

英國(guó)根本不會(huì)在他們侵占福島后在軍事上進(jìn)行反攻。

The Glade Riders and Warhawk Riders are swift and skilful beastmasters, striking with speed before the foe can react.

森林騎兵和戰(zhàn)鷹騎士都能靈巧地駕馭他們的坐騎，從而能迅速地攻擊敵人，致使其不能反攻。

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avoid

難度：4星核心詞匯，屬常用3000詞

英漢解釋

vt.避免；逃避；[律]使無(wú)效；撤銷

參考例句

用作及物動(dòng)詞 (vt.)

You should avoid unnecessary repetition.

你應(yīng)避免不必要的重復(fù)。

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observe

難度：4星核心詞匯，屬常用3000詞

英漢解釋

v.觀察；遵守；注意到；慶祝

參考例句

用作動(dòng)詞 (v.)

We have to observe carefully what's going on there.

我們必須仔細(xì)觀察那里的動(dòng)靜。

If they have to leave home, they must wear a face mask and observe good personal hygiene.

若外出,要佩戴口罩,注意個(gè)人衛(wèi)生。

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exposure

難度：3星常用詞匯，屬常用6000詞

英漢解釋

n.暴露；揭露；膠片；曝光時(shí)間；(在電視、報(bào)紙等媒體上的)亮相；挨凍

參考例句

用作名詞 (n.)

The girl is very pleased to take exposure on TV singing program.

這個(gè)女孩對(duì)在電視歌唱節(jié)目上露面非常高興。

He nearly died of exposure on the cold mountain.

他在寒冷的高山上差一點(diǎn)沒(méi)有凍死。

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forecast

難度：4星核心詞匯，屬常用3000詞

英漢解釋

n.預(yù)測(cè)；預(yù)報(bào)

v.預(yù)測(cè)

參考例句

用作名詞 (n.)

Despite the good weather forecast, the next morning was as wet as ever.

盡管預(yù)報(bào)稱天氣很好，但次日上午仍陰雨綿綿。

用作動(dòng)詞 (v.)

Next year's growth rate is forecast at just 1%.

據(jù)預(yù)測(cè),第二年的增長(zhǎng)率僅僅只有1%25。

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decline

難度：4星核心詞匯，屬常用3000詞

英漢解釋

v.下降；減少；變?nèi)?；拒絕；傾斜

n.衰微；跌落；晚年

參考例句

用作動(dòng)詞 (v.)

I wish prices would decline.

但愿物價(jià)下降。

用作名詞 (n.)

This decline in vigour with the passing of time is called ageing.

這種隨著時(shí)間流逝的活力衰退就叫做衰老。

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